Settlement is not random. It clusters at points where information changes or cost is about to be incurred.

Before filing. Cheapest and least common, because positions are untested and neither side has felt any pressure. A well-supported demand with documents attached occasionally works where the claim is clear.

After the pleadings and early motions. A ruling on a motion to dismiss removes or confirms theories and gives both sides a data point. Cases with a single legal question often resolve here.

After core discovery and key depositions. The largest cluster. The documents are known, the witnesses have testified, and the range of outcomes has narrowed considerably. This is where mediation is most productive.

On the eve of trial. The second largest cluster, driven by imminent cost and by the client’s first genuine confrontation with risk. Resolution here has already spent most of the money the settlement was meant to save.

What creates movement. New information; a ruling; a deadline; a change in the decision-maker on either side; and an honest evaluation communicated internally.

Practical implication. If the case is likely to settle after depositions, schedule the important depositions early and the mediation immediately after, rather than allowing the sequence to be dictated by the discovery cutoff.